With a portfolio spanning across diversified real estate classes which includes integrated developments, shopping malls, serviced residences, offices and homes, blue chip conglomerate CapitaLand Limited (SGX:C31) has a business presence across more than 200 cities in over 30 countries worth S$131.9b as at 31 December 2019.

At the time of writing, there are a total of 5 Singapore-listed REITs under CapitaLand and they are (in alphabetical order): Ascendas India Trust (SGX:CY6U), Ascendas REIT (SGX:A17U), Ascott Residence Trust (SGX:HMN), CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX:C61U), CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX:C38U), as well as CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX:AU8U).

In this post, you will find my technical analysis of the share price movements of CapitaLand, along with its 5 Singapore-listed REITs on a daily timeframe – particularly how their share prices have been moving in recent months, how it is likely to move in the near-term, along with conditions that must happen before I short-term trade in them.

Before I continue, please take note that everything you are going to read from this point onwards is based on my own personal technical analysis for educational purposes only. They do not imply any buying or selling recommendations. You are strongly advised to conduct your own due diligence prior to making any trading/investing decisions.

With that, let’s get started…

CapitaLand Limited (SGX:C31)

The following is the share price movements of the conglomerate since middle of January 2020:

Share Price Movements of CapitaLand Limited since Mid-January 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Share Price Movements of CapitaLand Limited since Mid-January 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

As you can see from the above, from a high of S$3.97 attained in mid-January, CapitaLand’s share price went on a downward slide, where it crashed to a low of S$2.56 in end-March (that’s a drop by about 35.5%) before it recovered to about S$3.24 in early-June, and then retreated once again.

When market closed yesterday (03 August), its share price was on the support line of the red downtrend channel. Looking at the technical indicators MACD and stochastic, both of them are in a downtrend, implying that in the near-term, the conglomerate’s share price is likely to hoover around the support line of the red downtrend channel. Should it break under the support line on a high volume, its share price could fall further down.

Personally, in order for the trend to reverse from a downtrend to an uptrend, it must break above the resistance line of the red downtrend channel at above S$2.95 on a high volume – and I may consider buying some of the company’s shares for short-term trading then.

Ascendas India Trust (SGX:CY6U)

As the name suggests, the REIT’s seven IT parks and one logistics park are all located in key cities in India (their properties are located in Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune, and Mumbai.)

The following is the unit price movement of the REIT since mid-March:

Unit Price Movements of Ascendas India Trust since Mid-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Unit Price Movements of Ascendas India Trust since Mid-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

Apart from momentarily breaking above the resistance line of the green uptrend channel in early-June (where its unit price reached a high of S$1.54), and a month later (around mid-July), where the REIT’s unit price momentarily broke under the support line of the channel (and reached a low of S$1.26), the REIT’s unit price have largely been moving within the green uptrend channel over the past couple of months.

The REIT’s unit price closed at S$1.38 yesterday (03 August), where the support line of the green uptrend channel is, with technical indicators MACD and stochastic both in an uptrend position. Despite that, it is no guarantee that its unit price may bounce back up from this point – it is also possible that its unit price may slip under the support line and move to around S$1.30. However, should the unit price of the REIT were to indeed bounce up from this point, it could possibly go up to S$1.48 (where the blue dotted line is.)

If I were to short-term trade in the REIT, I would first wait for a bullish candlestick to appear, along with technical indicators continue to remain in an uptrend position, before I seriously consider making any trading decisions.

Ascendas REIT (SGX:A17U)

Ascendas REIT is Singapore’s first and largest listed business space and industrial REIT, and is a constituent of Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI).

As at 31 December 2019, the REIT’s portfolio consists of a total of 99 properties in Singapore, 35 properties in Australia, 38 properties in the United Kingdom, and 28 properties in the United States.

The following is the REIT’s unit price movements since late-March:

Unit Price Movements of Ascendas REIT since Late-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Unit Price Movements of Ascendas REIT since Late-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

One look and you can see that since bottoming at S$2.22 in late-March, its share price have moved in one direction – up. There is a resistance line at S$3.30 level, where share price tend to bounce down whenever it hits this line, but this line was eventually broken as well and the REIT’s unit price continued to move upwards from there.

As at 03 August, its unit price was at S$3.54, where the support line of the green uptrend channel is. Looking at the technical indicators, MACD seems like its going to turn into a downtrend, while stochastic is already in a downtrend position, suggesting that in the near-term, its unit price could retreat to the resistance-turned-support line at S$3.30.

Ascott Residence Trust (SGX:HMN)

Ascott Residence Trust is the largest hospitality trust in Asia Pacific with an asset value of S$7.4 billion as at 31 December 2019. Its properties are mostly operated under the Ascott The Residence, Somerset, Quest and Citadines brands, and they are mainly located in key gateway cities such as Barcelona, Berlin, Brussels, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, London, Manila, Melbourne, Munich, New York, Paris, Perth, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo.

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic which as restricted traveling (be it for business or for leisure) has negatively impacted the REIT, where its gross revenue, net property income, as well as its distributable income to unitholders for the first half of FY2020 have fallen by 16.1%, 34.7%, and 61.3% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis respectively.

Here’s the hospitality REIT’s unit price movement since early-November 2019:

Unit Price Movements of Ascott Residence Trust since Early-November 2019 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Unit Price Movements of Ascott Residence Trust since Early-November 2019 (on a Daily Timeframe)

Its unit price fell from a high of S$1.42 in early-November 2019 to a low of just S$0.670 in late-March 2020 – a drop by 52.8% in about four months. While its unit price saw some recovery thereafter (where it went up to a high of S$1.17 in early-June 2020), it slipped once again (where it moved along the red downtrend channel), with its unit price closing at S$0.880 yesterday (03 August).

The REIT’s MACD is currently in a downtrend position, with its stochastic currently under 30.0 (implying that it is in an oversold position). In the near-term, I am of the opinion that its unit price could possibly move to the support line of the red downtrend channel at around S$0.850 before bouncing up.

Finally, if I were to short-term trade in this one, I will wait for the unit price to break above the resistance line of the red downtrend channel at above S$0.950 on a high volume, along with the appearance of a bullish candlestick and technical indicators MACD and stochastic in an uptrend position. Otherwise, I’d be happy to stay on the sidelines and monitor its unit price movement.

CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX:C61U)

CapitaLand Commercial Trust is currently pending merger with CapitaLand Mall Trust to form an enlarged REIT which will be named as CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (or CICT for short.) The proposed merger is currently pending approval by unitholders of both CapitaLand Commercial Trust and CapitaLand Mall Trust in separate EGMs (where at this point in time, I do not have the dates yet.)

Currently, the blue chip REIT’s portfolio consists of 8 office and commercial buildings in Singapore (all located in Singapore’s Central Area), as well as 2 properties in Germany (one located in Germany’s prime Central Business District and one located in the vicinity of Frankfurt Airport.)

The following is the REIT’s unit price movements since late-March:

Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Commercial Trust since Late-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Commercial Trust since Late-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

From a low of S$1.30 in early-April, its unit price moved along the green uptrend channel, where it broke above the resistance line and reached a high of S$1.99 in early-June. Subsequently, its unit price went on a downward slide and as at the end of trading day yesterday (03 August), its unit price closed at S$1.59.

Technical indicators MACD and stochastic are in a downtrend, suggesting that in the near-term, its unit price could fall further below the support line of the red downtrend channel.

If I were to short-term trade in the REIT, I will wait for its unit price to once again go back into the green uptrend channel above S$1.80, with the appearance of a bullish candlestick and technical indicators (MACD and stochastic) in an uptrend position.

CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX:C38U)

Blue chip retail REIT CapitaLand Mall Trust, at the time of writing, have a total of 15 retail malls – all located in Singapore.

The REIT was adversely impacted by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, especially when the Singapore government implemented a two-month circuit breaker period (between 07 April and 01 June) to stem the community spread of the pandemic. While shops in the malls have since re-opened (albeit with safe distancing measures in place), it may be quite some time before the shopper traffic and tenant sales return to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Let us now take a look at the REIT’s unit price movements since the middle of March:

Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Mall Trust since Mid-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)
Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Mall Trust since Mid-March 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

Since hitting a low of S$1.49 in early-April (around when the 2-month circuit breaker was about to be implemented), the retail REIT’s unit price have bounced up, and reached a high of S$2.35 in early-June before reversing again. As at the end of the trading session yesterday (03 August), its unit price closed at S$1.85, with technical indicators MACD and stochastic both in a downtrend position – suggesting that in the near-term, its unit price could further slip down to the support line of the red downtrend channel at around S$1.80.

Finally, if I am looking to short-term trade in the REIT, I will wait till its unit price breaks out of the resistance line of the red downtrend channel at around S$2.00 on a high volume. I’ll also wait for the appearance of a bullish candlestick (to confirm that an uptrend is indeed in place), along with technical indicators (MACD and stochastic) in an uptrend position. Till then, I will continue to monitor the REIT’s unit price movements.

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (SGX:AU8U)

CapitaLand Retail China Trust is the first (and also the largest) China shopping REIT, with its portfolio consisting of a total of 13 shopping malls – 4 in Beijing, 1 in Shanghai, 1 in Chengdu, 1 in Guangzhou, 2 in Hohhot, 1 in Wuhan, 2 in Harbin, and 1 in Changsha.

With that, let us now take a look at the REIT’s unit price movement since early-April:

Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Retail China Trust since Early-April 2020 (on a Daily Timeframe)

Since the beginning of April to around the end of May, its unit price have largely moved in a range of between S$1.27 and S$1.34, before going on a downward trend. When trading ended yesterday (03 August), it was at S$1.21, with technical indicators MACD and stochastic both in a downtrend – suggesting that in the near-term, it is highly likely that its unit price may see a further slide where it could move to the support line at around S$1.17.

Finally, if I am looking to short-term trade in the REIT, I will wait till the unit price breaks above the S$1.27 resistance line on a high volume, along with the appearance of a bullish candlestick, and that the technical indicators (MACD and stochastic) are also in an uptrend position.

In Conclusion

With that, I have come to the end of my share today. I certainly hope you have found today’s post useful.

One thing to note – while I have shared how I may short-term trade in each individual company, I may or may not enter trade depending on the overall market condition at that point in time. Also, just to re-iterate that everything you have read in this post is purely for educational purposes and please do your own due diligence before you make any trading/investing decisions.

Disclaimer: At the time of writing, I am a unitholder of Ascendas REIT and CapitaLand Mall Trust.

 

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