First and foremost, a very good Monday morning to you. We’re into the first working day of yet another new month. Hope you’ve had a great long weekend with your loved ones. 😊

Today, I’d like to share my personal technical analysis on the four Mapletree REITs – namely Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX:N2IU), Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:ME8U), Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U), and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX:RW0U) – particularly, how their unit prices are likely to move in the near-term (based on a daily timeframe.)

Before I begin, a disclaimer – whatever you may read in this post is purely for educational purposes only. They do not represent any buy or sell recommendation for any of the REITs. Please do your own due diligence before you make any investing/trading decisions.

With that out of the way, let’s begin…

Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX:N2IU)

This blue chip REIT has a total of 6 properties in its portfolio, all located in Singapore – VivoCity, Mapletree Business City I and II, PSA Building, Mapletree Anson, as well as Merrill Lynch Harbourfront.

The following is the unit price movement of Mapletree Commercial Trust (on a daily timeframe) since April 2020:

Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX:N2IU) since early-April 2020
Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX:N2IU) since early-April 2020

As you can see from the above, since bottoming at S$1.46 in early-April, its unit price have recovered and moved along the green uptrend channel, where it peaked at S$2.23 in early-June before retreating.

Now, notice how the REIT’s unit price have slipped down the red downtrend channel since. While its unit price attempted to break above the resistance line of the red downtrend channel late-last week, it dropped back into the channel last Thursday (30 July) once again.

Looking at the technical indicators MACD and stochastic, both of them are in a downtrend, suggesting that in the near-term, its share price may reverse further (down towards the blue-dotted line around S$1.78.)

Personally, for the trend to reverse back up, it needs to first break beyond the resistance line of the red downtrend line (at around S$1.88) on a high volume.

Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:ME8U)

This is another blue chip REIT, where its portfolio consists of data centres, hi-tech buildings, business park buildings, flatted factories, stack-up/ramp-up buildings, and light industrial buildings.

According to the REIT’s website, as at 30 June 2020, Mapletree Industrial Trust’s total assets under managements S$5.9 bil, which comprised 87 properties in Singapore, as well as 27 properties in North America.

The following is the REIT’s unit price movements since mid-March (on a daily timeframe):

Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:ME8U) since mid-March 2020
Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:ME8U) since mid-March 2020

One look at the REIT’s unit price movement and you can tell that it has been trending up nicely along the green uptrend channel since bottoming out at S$1.86 in late-March. As at last Thursday (30 July), the REIT’s unit price closed at S$3.26 – an increase by 75%!

As you can see, its unit price tend to bounce back down whenever it hits the resistance line of the green uptrend channel. While MACD and stochastic are both in an uptrend, but the latter is nearing overbought levels, suggesting that its unit price may soon bounce down from the resistance line (just as it has over the past couple of months.)

Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U)

Mapletree Logistics Trust, as the name suggests, is a logistics REIT. It is also a constituent in Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI.)

Another thing to note is that, the REIT’s logistics properties are located in various geographical locations, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, China, Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

The following is the REIT’s unit price movements since mid-March on a daily timeframe:

Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U) since mid-March 2020
Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U) since mid-March 2020

Similar to Mapletree Industrial Trust, its unit price have been trending upwards since reaching a low of S$1.20 in late-March. As at last Thursday (30 July), its unit price closed at S$2.13, a jump by 77.5% since March low.

Another thing to note is, how the REIT’s unit price broke above the black resistance line at S$2.03 (where historically, it has bounced back down since hitting this line), and headed higher from there.

Looking at the technical indicators, while both MACD and stochastic are both in an uptrend, the former looks like it may be turning down into a downtrend, while the latter is nearing overbought levels. As such, in the near-term, I am of the opinion that the logistics REIT’s unit price may fall to the support line of the green uptrend channel at around S$2.10.

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX:RW0U)

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust is the only Mapletree REIT not in the STI.

The REIT is the only one that does not have properties in Singapore. At the time of writing, its properties are located in Hong Kong (in Festival Walk), China (in Gateway Plaza and Sandhill Plaza), as well as 8 office properties in Japan.

The following is the REIT’s unit price movements on a daily timeframe since the middle of January:

Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX:RW0U) since mid-January 2020
Daily Unit Price Movement of Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (SGX:RW0U) since mid-January 2020

As you can see from the above, from a high of around S$1.25 in mid-January 2020, its unit price plunged to a low of S$0.630 in the middle of March (a drop by close to 50%), recovered to around S$1.04 in mid-June, and then fell once again.

At the time of writing, its unit price is around the support line of the red downtrend channel, with MACD still in a downtrend. However, its stochastic is already in an oversold position and looks like it’s about to cross up into an uptrend.

In my personal opinion, two scenarios could happen in the near-term – if the REIT’s unit price were to break down under the S$0.855 support line on a high volume, then its unit price could slip down further. Otherwise, in the near-term, its unit price could move up towards the resistance at around S$0.900 (where the blue dotted line is.)

In Conclusion

At the time of writing, both Mapletree Commercial Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust are in my long-term investment portfolio (you can check out my entire long-term investment portfolio here.)

The other two Mapletree REITs (in Mapletree Industrial Trust as well as Mapletree Logistics Trust) are in my shortlist as well (to add to my long-term investment portfolio), and I’m planning to invest in both them when their unit prices retrace.

Having said that, I’d like to re-iterate that the above share is purely for educational purposes only, and they do not represent any buying or selling recommendations for any of the REITs.

Disclaimer: At the time of writing, I am a unitholder of Mapletree Commercial Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust.

 

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