In the previous post, I have shared all the researches I have done on the retail REIT in terms of its historical financial performance, portfolio occupancy and debt profile, along with distribution payouts to unitholders over a period of 10 years (between FY2010 and FY2019). You can check out the post here in case you’ve missed it.

My post today focuses on the unit price movements of the retail REIT to identify the best possible points to invest in it, based on technical analysis.

To start off, whenever I analyse any companies’ share price movements, I will first zoom all the way out to try and see if, over the years, a company’s share price movements is moving upwards, downwards, or in a range.

The following is CapitaLand Retail China Trust’s unit price movements since FY2010:

Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Retail China Trust's Unit Price Movements since FY2010
Unit Price Movements of CapitaLand Retail China Trust’s Unit Price Movements since FY2010

Did you notice anything about the REIT’s unit price movements over the years in the screenshot above?

Yes, it has largely been moving within a range since mid-2012, where the unit price have largely been moving between $1.35 and $1.65:

CapitaLand Retail China Trust's Unit Price have Largely Been Moving in a Range between $1.35 and $1.65 since mid-2012
CapitaLand Retail China Trust’s Unit Price have Largely Been Moving in a Range between $1.35 and $1.65 since mid-2012

The next thing I did was zoom into the range and identify the various support/resistance lines, along with any uptrend/downtrend lines which I’ve spotted:

Inserting the Various Support and Resistance Lines, along with Any Uptrend or Downtrend Movements
Inserting the Various Support and Resistance Lines, along with Any Uptrend or Downtrend Movements

Finally, I’ll further zoom in to the REIT’s most recent unit price movements to find out how its unit price have been moving, and how it may possibly move in the near-term:

Zooming into CapitaLand Retail China Trust's Most Recent Unit Price Movements to See How it May Possibly Move in the Near-Term
Zooming into CapitaLand Retail China Trust’s Most Recent Unit Price Movements to See How it May Possibly Move in the Near-Term

As you can see from the chart movements above, the retail REIT’s unit price went up to a high of $1.70 in mid January 2020 (which is its current 52-week high) before tumbling shortly after, on news that the REIT’s mall in Wuhan is closed and its other malls are operating at shorter hours due to the outbreak of Covid-19 in China.

Its share price went to a low of $1.49 before rebounding up and most recently, it has been moving in a tight range of between $1.51 and $1.54:

The REIT's Unit Price has been Moving in a Tight Range between $1.51 and $1.54 since early February 2020
The REIT’s Unit Price has been Moving in a Tight Range between $1.51 and $1.54 since early February 2020

Personally, in the near-term, the unit price could very well continue to move in this tight range. Depending on the situation of the Covid-19 outbreak, it could move upwards and attempt to break above the $1.55 resistance should there be any positive news about it, or it could fall further towards the $1.45 support line.

If I were to invest in the REIT, I’ll consider when the price falls to $1.45 (before I invest, I will have a look at the various technical indicators, including moving averages, MACD, and RSI, as well as its candlestick movements to determine if its unit price is likely to bounce up from there or it may break below the $1.45 support line and fall even further before I make any decision), or wait till the price falls to the bottom of the range at $1.35 (identified earlier on in this post.)

Disclaimer: I am not a unitholder of CapitaLand Retail China Trust at the time of writing.

 

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